Events > Advisers Big Day Out > 2015
Anchoring, Extrapolation & Noise: Potential Opportunities for and Risks To The Value Investor
Thursday, 20 August 2015
Tim Carleton
Principal & Portfolio Manager
Auscap Asset Management Pty Ltd

  1. Evidence supporting a value and quality bias: analysing S&P returns against Joel Greenblatt's two factor model
  1. Anchoring and its influence on investment thinking. Looking at risk-free rates and oil price expectations as case studies in the effects of anchoring, where historic prices lead to a slow acceptance of present conditions.
  1. Risks of extrapolation in forecasting. Assessing whether historical increases in the Chinese demand for iron ore are a useful proxy for determining future changes in consumption.
     
  2. The role that noise plays in affecting investment decisions. How concentrating on the statistical significance of events can reduce the influence of sentiment. A closer look at the real and perceived drivers of sales in the consumer discretionary space.

    Click here to see more videos from the Advisers Big Day Out 2015.

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